Not about polls and surveys anymore

19 12 2014

I like to always have something to do.

One Sunday I was feeling bored, and I came across this tweet by Vaughn Davis (@vaughndavis).

After a brief discussion about his technique for those fantastic looking panel lines, I was off to Toy World in J-ville. My first build was this 1/72 scale Spitfire Mkla.

Photo 14-12-14 08 19 38

There’s a massive learning curve, and clearly I’ve got a way to go. I was never patient enough to build scale models when I was a kid. I’m very slightly more patient now, and I’m totally addicted to this. I’ve just bought a second hand compressor and airbrush, and am two thirds of the way through an ME109 (sticking with the WW2 theme for now). I’ve also bought the kit for a Douglas C-47 Skytrain – and will be painting it in D-Day colours.

So, as well as posting about polls and surveys, I’ll now post the occasional completed scale model. :)

How did the polls do? The final outcome.

4 10 2014

Now we have the final election result, I’ve updated the table from my previous post. In addition, I’ve included a similar table for the polls-of-polls, and a pretty graph!

UPDATE: I’ve revised the chart and first table with UMR’s pre-election poll result, published by Gavin White on SAYit Blog. I’ve checked all my numbers fairly carefully, but if any pollster, pundit, or media organisation spots any errors please let me know and I’ll update this post accordingly.

Final result chart

How I calculated the above results.


Poll of polls

The overall picture remains similar.

  1. Well done DigiPoll and DPF (Curia poll-of-polls)
  2. Still no evidence, this election, of the ‘National bias’ that some people talk about.
  3. If there is any poll bias, it appears to be toward the Green Party.
  4. The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring – the polls that came closest only call landlines. It’s just one of many potential sources of error that pollster’s need to consider. Here’s another post about this, if anyone is interested in finding out why it’s not such a big deal.

How good was my prediction? (updated)

21 09 2014

It was okay. Not happy with my Green Party prediction.

UPDATE: Now updated with final election result. Things are a little better when it comes to the Green Party result, so I’m a little happier.


How did the polls do?

21 09 2014

This table shows the provisional election result and all the final pre-election poll results.

Table 1

This table shows deviations from the final result, for each party and poll.

Table 2

A few initial thoughts:

  1. Well done DigiPoll.
  2. Looking at these results, I see no evidence of the ‘National bias’ that some people talk about.
  3. If there is any poll bias, it appears to be toward the Green Party.
  4. The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring.


20 09 2014

We have more polls-of-polls now than we have actual polls. I thought it would be interesting to put all their predictions in one place, and also to calculate a basic average.

Please note that this is not my election prediction. I posted that yesterday.


My election prediction

19 09 2014

So here is my election night prediction. Call it an educated guess.

2014 prediction

Final pre-election polls have begun – what about the Dotcom bombshell?

13 09 2014

Final pre-election polls either began recently, or will begin in the next day or two.

Pollsters all do things a bit differently, but my guess is most media polls are probably carrying out the majority of their interviews over the next three days, leaving the final couple of days to carry out call backs and appointments, and/or fill hard-to-reach quotas.

What does Kim Dotcom have to reveal on Monday?

Who knows…? If his bombshell has a major influence on voting decisions, the polls may pick some of this up in the last couple of days of fieldwork. The polls won't get that good a read on it though, because most interviews will be carried out prior to Dotcom's announcement.

A previous poll did reveal that more people believed Dotcom than the PM over when the PM first came to know about Dotcom, and that didn't seem to matter a great deal to National Party supporters at the time. For Dotcom's bombshell to influence National's support, it probably needs to be a WMD-level bombshell.

Why not wait until after Dotcom's announcement to begin fieldwork?

You could do this, but you'd have a very short fieldwork period, meaning limited call backs and a low response rate. You might pick up the influence of Kim Dotcom's announcement, but the results could very well be all over the place due to low response. In addition, you would have changed your methodology, so your results would not be comparable to your previous poll.

Personally, I wouldn't take this risk. But that's just me.


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