The next Colmar Brunton preferred Prime Minister result will generate a lot of interest – probably a few cheers from the opposition and kind folks at The Standard, and fairly cautious or defensive responses from some National Party supporters. Here are my predictions: Bill English’s result will be lower than John Key’s current result of […]
Just posted this in reply to an article on LinkedIn. Thought it could also go here… Folks trying to explain polls often seem to look for one or two sources of error. Even the UK polling enquiry seemed to be looking for that ‘one big thing’ and appeared to discount small issues that could have made a […]
Two pieces of news that are kind of a big deal, for me. Firstly, I’m ditching my landline! I’m not a student and I’m not in a low income band, so make of that what you will. Secondly, after 10 June I will no longer be a pollster. I have resigned from my current role […]
Bernard Hickey just posted this on Twitter. I can’t imagine there’s really anything causal here, but interesting huh?
In my current role I spend a good portion of my time responding to requests for proposals from government agencies. I really like working with social sector clients, because their research often needs to be highly defensible and robust, and because I prefer to spend my time on research that can make a positive difference. […]
So, DigiPoll has shut up shop, and I haven’t seen a poll out of Fairfax in a long time. Are we down to just three polls now? (Newshub, ONE News, and Roy Morgan.) This is not good at all, if true. With less data, it’s harder to develop new methodological and analytical approaches to polling.
My good friend Chris runs the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study. This is a 20-year longitudinal study of social attitudes, personality and health outcomes. It is unique to New Zealand, and has now been running for around seven years. There is a big article about it in the Herald today. Last July, when a nationwide row about racism […]