So, there we have it…
Oppose/not in favour of GCSB bill or support/in favour of GCSB bill?*
- Research NZ random poll: 52% not in favour, 36% in favour (11% don't know)
- Campbell Live self-selecting poll: 89% oppose, 11% support (don't know not offered as a valid response)
We have a relation visiting from the UK at the moment. Given what little he has read in the media, and what I have mentioned to him about self-selecting polls, his prediction was about 85% opposed in the Campbell Live poll. Nice.
Of couse self-selecting polls can be a bit of fun, given the right context. This poll is claimed by some to reflect public sentiment though, so it's not just a bit of fun and, in my view, this is not the right context.
Don't trust self-selecting polls if you want to accurately measure the views of the general public, or if you're polling on something you think is important.
*Usual caveats – the polls asked different questions, one was self-completion and one was interviewer administered. These caveats don't explain the differences in these results.