Over at Polity Rob Salmond blogs about the number of National supporters who probably voted ‘no’ in the partial asset sales referendum.
This has to be enormously concerning for National. The people who voted for National then rejected National’s flagship policy are very much at risk come 2014. Many are likely centrists, part of the “squeezed middle” who National hasn’t delivered for so far this term. They’ve now already rejected National at the ballot box once.
I disagree. I don’t think National will care much. People can vote for a party, and at the same time not support all of that party’s policies. What matters is how strongly people support or oppose a policy. A yes/no question in a poll or a referendum tells us very little about that. Measuring strength of support or opposition requires an entirely different question.
Is the sale of assets a ‘key issue’ that will sway centrist voters? The last election tells us that it isn’t.