Wow, there has been a lot of online discussion about polls in the last few days. I’d like to make a point.
It seems a lot of people assume that pollsters are trying desperately to get a representative sample, and that they fail if they do not achieve that. To tell a pollster their data are flawed, it seems, is the ultimate insult!
That’s an incorrect assumption.
Any pollster, ever, who tells you their sample is perfectly representative either doesn’t know what they’re doing, or is lying. Yes! The data are flawed, and they always have been. This is nothing new, and has not just come about in recent years due to increasing non-coverage. No pollster can get a representative sample of eligible voters. It’s simply not possible.
The pollster’s job, in my view, is to try to understand why they can’t, and to attempt to disentangle the signal from the noise. It’s the job of a good pollster to spend hours thinking about sources of error, and considering ways to reduce it, cancel it out, or otherwise adjust for it. They can’t always get it right, but that’s the nature of measurement in a context where there are so many variables.
A poll is a measurement tool, and all measurements contain error.
That is all.