How did the polls do? The final outcome.

Now we have the final election result, I’ve updated the table from my previous post. In addition, I’ve included a similar table for the polls-of-polls, and a pretty graph!

UPDATE: I’ve revised the chart and first table with UMR’s pre-election poll result, published by Gavin White on SAYit Blog. I’ve checked all my numbers fairly carefully, but if any pollster, pundit, or media organisation spots any errors please let me know and I’ll update this post accordingly.

Final result chart

How I calculated the above results.


Poll of polls

The overall picture remains similar.

  1. Well done DigiPoll and DPF (Curia poll-of-polls)
  2. Still no evidence, this election, of the ‘National bias’ that some people talk about.
  3. If there is any poll bias, it appears to be toward the Green Party.
  4. The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring – the polls that came closest only call landlines. It’s just one of many potential sources of error that pollsters need to consider. Here’s another post about this, if anyone is interested in finding out why it’s not such a big deal.

4 thoughts on “How did the polls do? The final outcome.

  1. I would guess that “landlines polls work” because the sampling bias matches the voting bias. I wouldn’t trust it to work every election.

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