Written by Andrew30 April, 2016 NZ First support and permanent long-term arrivals Bernard Hickey just posted this on Twitter. I can’t imagine there’s really anything causal here, but interesting huh? Advertisements Share this:Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Google+ (Opens in new window)Click to email (Opens in new window)Like this:Like Loading... 5 thoughts on “NZ First support and permanent long-term arrivals” If NZ First support was a consequence of immigration numbers, wouldn’t you expect to see a lag? That is; people turning to the party after the arrival of immigrants rather than in sync with their arrival. Likewise, one other possible interpretation of the the pair of graphs shown here is that recent immigrants support NZ First. Reply I guess. I don’t think NZ First support is a consequence of immigration numbers because a) most people would have no idea about current immigration numbers, or accurate perceptions of their change over time, and b) it’s far too simple an explanation for political preference. Reply Yes. Or as we used to say in the university Physics department “correlation doesn’t equal causation”. Case in point – http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations (H/T Matthew Beveridge) Although Bill, correlation *is* a necessary precondition when establishing causation. 🙂 Reply Make a comment... Cancel reply Enter your comment here... Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Email (required) (Address never made public) Name (required) Website You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Twitter account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Google+ account. ( Log Out / Change ) Cancel Connecting to %s Notify me of new comments via email. Notify me of new posts via email.