Poll/forecast/avg deviations from the provisional 2017 election result

I’ve compiled this Google Doc, that I’ll update as things progress this evening.

It shows all pre-election polls, forecasts and poll-of-poll averages that I know of. For each poll/forecast/average it will also calculate the deviation for each party and across all results.

A few notes:

  1. I’m very sorry if I’ve made a numerical error. Please let me know and I’ll fix it up.
  2. In 2014, the final/official election result (released a month or so after Election Day) made quite a big difference when it came to the predictive accuracy of each poll. Please take these results as they are intended – a bit of fun on Election Night.
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4 thoughts on “Poll/forecast/avg deviations from the provisional 2017 election result

  1. Andrew,

    You have Labour’s Provisional Party-Vote as 39.5%
    With 100% Election Night counted it’s 35.8%
    (I think it’s safe to say that even at 8:32pm – when you compiled these figures – Lab’s vote was nowhere near 39.5)

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