How did the polls do (final outcome)?

Special votes have been counted, so we can now see how all the polls and poll-of-polls performed against the official election result.

Final

You can find the detailed comparisons in this Google doc.

  1. Again, well done Reid Research – outstanding job and huge improvement over 2014. 
  2. Both established public polls, despite employing very different approaches, were reasonably close to each other. Note the Reid Research and Colmar Brunton polls are the only regular pubic polls that subscribe to the New Zealand Political Polling Code.
  3. Stuff’s forecast has done the best of all the forecasts and polls-of-polls. If they had included an estimate for ‘other’ they may have been closer than the Reid Research poll.
  4. Some of my other thoughts on polling in New Zealand are in this article.

 

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